How Retailers Can Turn First-Party Data Into Holiday Growth

Retailers everywhere are trying to prepare for a host of unknowns this holiday season, not least of which is how tariffs may impact consumer spending. Deloitte predicts that peak-season sales will grow only about 3 percent this year, the slowest pace since the pandemic. Yet within those muted expectations lies a bright spot: e-commerce is forecast to grow 7 percent to 9 percent, outpacing brick-and-mortar growth of roughly 2 percent. For retailers willing to be strategic, that gap represents an opportunity to maximize revenue from the traffic they already have and to build loyalty well beyond the holiday quarter.

Consumers Will Be More Selective

One thing everyone agrees on is that consumers will be more cautious. Inflation and tariffs are pushing shoppers to be deliberate about what they buy and when they buy it. PwC notes that Gen Z expects to cut holiday spending by about 23 percent, a sharper pullback than any other age group. With fewer impulse purchases, retailers can no longer rely on sheer traffic to meet revenue goals. Conversion and loyalty will matter more than ever.

This environment demands that every interaction and every impression carry value. That’s where commerce media and first-party data combine to create a powerful response.

Commerce Media: Turning Inspiration Into Action

Commerce media — i.e., placing relevant, value-adding offers directly into the shopping journey — has emerged as a secret weapon for driving conversion during peak traffic periods. Instead of interrupting shoppers with unrelated ads, commerce media aligns promotions with the context of the shopping experience itself.

For example, while reviewing their cart, shoppers are weighing options and are often receptive to personalized suggestions that enhance their order. At payment, when trust and intent are at their peak, timely promotions or exclusive offers can deepen engagement and unlock incremental revenue. And once the purchase is complete, the confirmation page becomes a natural space to introduce complementary products or relevant brand offers in a way that feels seamless and valuable.

By meeting customers in these high-attention moments with curated, relevant experiences, brands can transform routine checkout flows into powerful growth opportunities, driving additional sales and partnerships without disrupting the customer journey.

First-Party Data: The Foundation for Relevance

To make commerce media resonate, retailers need first-party data (i.e., the information collected directly from their own customer interactions). And now artificial intelligence is turbocharging the way retailers capture and use that customer data.

Shoppers today provide retailers with richer context through longer and more conversational search queries, making it easier for retailers to build more nuanced first-party data profiles. Once that data is captured, AI can make it far more powerful by driving progressive personalization, making smarter recommendations, and testing creative in real time to directly improve the customer experience.

When retailers use this data to tailor offers by drawing on purchase history, basket size, or browsing patterns, advertising ceases to feel intrusive. Instead, it becomes a service: relevant, timely, and genuinely helpful to the shopper. Holiday 2025 provides an unmatched opportunity to capture and enrich these data profiles as traffic surges.

Practical Steps to Maximize Peak Traffic

Retailers looking to make the most of commerce media and first-party data this season can start with these actions:

• Integrate commerce media into underutilized touchpoints such as checkout and confirmation flows. These moments have built-in engagement and trust.
• Balance monetization with shopper trust by ensuring every offer is contextually relevant. A misaligned ad can undermine the very loyalty you’re trying to build.
• Activate first-party data in real time using signals like recent purchases, cart value, and browsing behavior to adjust offers dynamically.
• Look beyond Q4. Design data-capture and segmentation strategies now so holiday-acquired data fuels loyalty programs and campaigns well into 2026.

Why it Matters Beyond the Holidays

While the immediate goal is to win the holiday season, the larger opportunity lies in the long-term value of the data and relationships built during this peak period. Retailers that capture and intelligently use first-party data now will be positioned to:

• Launch more effective loyalty programs.
• Create relevant marketing year-round.
• Achieve higher customer lifetime value.

The work done in November and December can drive performance and profitability throughout the entire year. In today’s environment of macro-economic volatility, many retailers are shifting away from long-term forecasts and are leaning on customer data as the true signal for short-term pivots. Peak periods are especially valuable here since they provide the clearest view of what customers actually want, making it critical to capture the data in real time.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Holiday 2025 is shaping up as a proving ground. Growth will be slower and competition fiercer, but the retailers that invest in commerce media and first-party data activation will emerge stronger. As commerce media matures into a projected $100 billion-plus industry in the coming years, the strategies retailers deploy this holiday season will set the tone for how competitive they are in 2026 and beyond.

Q4 will be a powerful time for acquisition, but getting the shopper to convert is only the beginning of creating a loyal customer. Delivery, returns and service are now just as important as the purchase itself in driving retention. Customer expectations have been reset by Amazon.com and others, where speed, convenience and customer service are the baseline. The retailers that win will be those that turn peak season traffic into year-round loyalty.

Laura Cosgrove is the senior vice president, client success for Rokt, a global leader in e-commerce, enabling companies to unlock value by making each transaction relevant at the moment that matters most — when customers are buying.