Holiday Spending Forecast to Top $1 Trillion

U.S. retail sales over the upcoming November-December holiday shopping season are poised to set a new record this year and top $1 trillion for the first time, Bain & Company forecasts. The new all-time high for holiday sales is expected to be driven by 4.5 percent year-over-year (YoY) growth in nominal terms, well ahead of a 3.5 percent YoY rise recorded in the 2025 holiday season, Bain projects in its annual U.S. retail holiday forecast. However, Bain notes in its forecast that more than half of the sales growth will come from higher inflation as this pushes up prices for consumers.

Total Retail's Take: Bain's forecast points to a solid but potentially deceptive holiday season for retailers. With more than half of the overall increase in sales expected to come from inflationary pricing, unit volumes and real demand will be considerably less impressive than the headline number suggests. This increases the pressure on retailers to produce profitable growth rather than simply topline growth. This is likely to include carefully manage inventory, markdowns and promotional intensity so that higher topline sales don't come at the expense of margins.

Furthermore, the forecast reinforces how critical digital execution will be this holiday season. With online sales expected to substantially outpace in-store growth, retailers should be prepared for greater pressure on e-commerce fulfillment, inventory visibility, delivery capacity and last-mile costs. Yet physical stores remain valuable as fulfillment assets through BOPIS, ship-from-store and returns. The $1 trillion record-setting total is eye-catching, but the real key for retailers will be converting that spending into profitable transactions and lasting customer relationships.