Adobe: Online Holiday Sales Expected to Reach $209.7B

Online shopping sales are expected to reach $209.7 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 - Dec. 31), representing a 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY) growth, according to a report from Adobe based on Adobe Analytics data. The report provides a comprehensive view into the U.S. e-commerce by analyzing more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Other findings from the Adobe report include:

• Consumers are expected to spend earlier this year, as a second Prime Day (Oct. 11-12) kicks off before the holiday season begins.
• Cyber Monday is expected to remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving $11.2 billion in spending, increasing 5.1 percent YoY. Black Friday online sales are projected to grow 1 percent YoY to $9 billion, while Thanksgiving sales are set to fall to $5.1 billion, down 1 percent YoY.
• Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) will generate $34.8 billion in e-commerce sales overall, up 2.8 percent YoY.
• Buy now pay later (BNBL) usage is expected to slow. From January 2022 to September 2022, online revenue share from BNPL grew only 5 percent when compared to the same period in 2021.
• Curbside pickup will peak from Dec. 22 to Dec. 23 at around 35 percent of all online orders, while remaining around 25 percent through November 2022.

Total Retail's Take: While Adobe's online holiday shopping forecast may seem bullish, there are some nuances this year that will affect retailers' bottom lines. Simply put, consumers will shop early this year as they contend with elevated prices offline (food, gas, housing) and the fear those prices will rise even more in the current unsettled economic environment. They're also expecting deals earlier in the season. Discounts, in fact, will hit record highs (upwards of 32 percent), as retailers contend with oversupply and a softening consumer spending environment. The biggest discounts are expected to hit between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, Adobe said. 

What's more, while the days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday are set to have the best deals, consumers will see bargains as early as the second week of October, where discounts are expected to be as high as 15 percent. Deals will also persist through the remainder of the year, with discounts as high as 20 percent in the weeks after Cyber Monday. These moments will offer greater flexibility to consumers who need to manage their budgets in new ways this year, Adobe said.