Inventory’s Role in Contingency Planning

One of my favorite moments from NEMOA's Fall 2011 directXchange Conference was when Country Curtain’s President Phil McAvoy said the following during his keynote speech: “Don’t be a hero at budget times.” His point is that you should already have contingency plans in place so you can respond to the inevitable challenges that arise during the year. Be a hero when it counts — at the end of the year when you meet or exceed your budget.

Contingency planning was a recurring theme at the conference and inventory planning played a central role in every instance. Glenda Lehman Ervin, vice president of marketing at Lehman’s, described one experience as “Ragdollgate.” Lehman's had tremendous customer demand for a rag doll it was offering, but was woefully short of inventory. This turned out to be a significant learning moment for the cross-channel retailer. All of its major promotions since have incorporated extra inventory planning, said Ervin.

Martha Eyman, director of merchandise planning at Garnet Hill, echoed Ervin's thoughts. She described the significant planning Garnet Hill does in order to align product plans and inventory with its multichannel marketing plans. These comments reinforced the contingency best practices I've gleaned from working with Direct Tech's customers. Consider the following:

1. Start your contingency planning six months to 12 months before an event. For retailers with highly seasonal sales periods, planning for next year’s peak season should begin immediately following the current year’s peak season. Hold a wrap-up meeting specifically to evaluate which plans worked and which didn’t. This can help you begin preparing to keep or expand the good and fix or scrap the bad for next time.

2. Adhere to a disciplined contingency planning calendar encompassing marketing, merchandising, purchasing, operations and suppliers. Make buying decisions when you must, but not before, as every additional week provides you with more confidence in sales and inventory forecasts.