Report: Retail Sales Grew in March Thanks to Tax Refunds
Retail sales rose again in March as consumers received higher-than-usual tax refunds that made up for increased gasoline prices, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“Retail sales grew for a sixth consecutive month in March as the first wave of tax refunds offset higher gas prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release from the industry trade association.
Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month and up 6.59 percent unadjusted year-over-year in March, according to the Retail Monitor. Total sales were up 6.18 percent year-over-year during the first quarter, and core sales were up 6.14 percent.
Total Retail's Take: After an initial steep decline at the beginning of the year, retailers are seeing marginal but steady growth in sales as 2026 progresses. In March, that gain can be attributed to tax season refunds hitting consumers' bank accounts. The IRS says 2026 tax refunds averaged $3,521 as of late March, up 11.1 percent from 2025 following changes in tax law passed last year. However, the gain could have been larger. Consumers' wallets were strained at the gas pump and beyond due to the Iran war, and sentiment is faltering.
Despite record low consumer sentiment and the highest inflation rate in two years, consumers continued to spend on household priorities, said Shay. According to the Retail Monitor, categories tied to essentials and lifestyle like health, apparel, and digital products are outperforming, while home-related sectors lag.
Retailers should note that while consumers are still spending, it's with intent. "As consumers focus on costs, retailers remain laser-focused on keeping prices competitive and affordable,” Shay added.
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Kristina Stidham is the digital content director at Total Retail and sister brands Women in Retail Leadership Circle and Women Leading Travel & Hospitality at NAPCO Media. She is passionate about digital media and handles video, podcast and virtual event production for all brands. You can often find her at WIRLC, TR, WLT&H or industry events with her camera and podcasting equipment—or at home on Zoom—recording interviews with thought leaders and business executives.
Kristina holds a B.A. in Media Studies and Production from the Temple University Klein College of Media and Communication in Philadelphia. Go Owls! When she's not in the office, she loves to go on long walks, sing around the house, hangout with her family and two pet guinea pigs, and travel to new places.
