NRF Forecasts 4.4% Annual Retail Sales Growth in 2026

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that retail sales in 2026 will grow by 4.4 percent over 2025 to $5.6 trillion, based on a newly enhanced forecasting approach developed in partnership with Oxford Economics, one of the world’s leading independent economic advisory firms. The announcement was made last week during NRF’s sixth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event, which examines the health of American consumers and the retail industry. The 2026 sales forecast compares with 3.6 percent average annual sales growth over the last 10 years, excluding the pandemic period from 2020 to 2022 when growth was atypical.

Total Retail's Take: What's interesting is that consumer sentiment is trending downward, down nearly 2 percent in March, hitting its lowest level of the year, yet the NRF notes that sentiment has remained historically disconnected from actual spending patterns. Solid underlying fundamentals, particularly income growth, household balance sheets and labor market stability, are expected to support continued consumer activity in 2026.

Given this forecast, retailers should plan for moderate, reliable growth in 2026. This year will be a favorable environment to invest and expand, however, success will depend on execution and differentiation, not just market momentum.

Yet as we know in the retail industry, conditions can change quickly, often driven by external factors outside of the control of retail organizations. NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews alluded to that dynamic in the press conference announcing the trade organization's 2026 sales forecast.

"Renewed tensions in the Middle East and the ripple effects across global markets are adding more uncertainty to the economic landscape,” Mathews said. “While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead.”