Adobe: US Holiday Online Sales to Grow 6.7%

U.S. online sales are forecasted to grow 6.7 percent this holiday season, nearly the same ​pace as last year, as promotions attract ‌deal-seeking shoppers, Adobe Analytics reported on Monday. Higher household costs are making shoppers more selective and value-seeking. ​Retailers, including Walmart, Kohl's, and American Eagle Outfitters, have raised concerns ​on consumers' spending capacity ahead of the ⁠key shopping period that drives end-of-year ​sales.

Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $275.1 billion this holiday season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2026). Cyber Week (the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday) is set to drive $47.5 billion online (up 7.4 percent year-over-year), representing 17.3 percent of the full holiday season spend.

Total Retail's Take: Adobe’s forecast points to a healthy Q4 for retail, but one in which growth will be increasingly dependent on promotions and value. And the holiday calendar is getting longer. October e-commerce spending is forecast to increase 8 percent as Prime Day and competing retail events pull holiday purchases forward. Consumers are using these sales events and widespread discounting to not only purchase holiday gifts, but also stock up on necessities such as personal care, clothing basics and household goods. While top-line sales growth will be welcome by retailers, they're still facing margin pressures.

An interesting and perhaps not surprising data point from the Adobe report is that traffic from AI-powered shopping tools is projected to jump 130 percent YoY. Furthermore, social media and affiliate/partner channels are expected to gain revenue share faster than paid search. Retailers that make products easily discoverable through AI as well as leverage creators and affiliates could be better positioned to capture a disproportionate share of what could be another record online holiday season.