The Attribution Illusion: Why Old Metrics Are Failing Retail Brands

For decades, marketers have operated under a kind of mass delusion: we’ve clung to vanity metrics — e.g., impressions, clicks, and platform-reported conversions — not because they told the whole story, but because they were easy to measure and convenient to believe.

These metrics, lobbied by major tech platforms, gave us a reassuring sense of control. However, the era of last-touch attribution (LTA) is ending as the signals we’ve relied on are eroding. This is actually good news for retail brands.

Privacy concerns are growing among consumers, who don’t want every step of their digital footprint tracked. As a result, platforms have tightened security, making deterministic attribution less reliable.

At the same time, advances in technology have made controlled testing methods accessible to brands of all sizes, not just data-rich organizations. This accessibility has fueled competition, and CFOs are pressing harder than ever for proof of true campaign return on investment for every dollar spent.

As these forces converge, incrementality is emerging as the most credible way to measure performance. Nowhere is this reckoning more visible than in connected TV (CTV).

CTV: A Tipping Point for Measurement

CTV advertising has grown up fast. In just a few years, it’s gone from a specialty tech in 22 percent of U.S. households to a near-ubiquitous presence, with 94 percent now owning at least one streaming device. But without the ability to directly click on streaming ads, it also exposes a fundamental weakness in digital marketing.

CTV’s value lies in its ability to combine the reach and credibility of TV with the precision and measurability of digital. However, if you evaluate it through the lens of traditional attribution models, it will always appear to underperform.

This is largely because LTA ignores the reality that consumers are influenced across a mix of channels, many of which aren’t clickable. Meta, Google and other social giants have shaped click-based models that no longer fit how people engage with brands. Modern consumers are watching Netflix while browsing Reddit. They're discovering products from influencers on TikTok, then seeing those same brands on the biggest screen in the house.

LTA works well for digital, but fails to capture the impact of non-clickable channels like TV, out-of-home, and influencer. We’ve built an entire system around attribution models that can’t answer the most important question: What did this campaign actually cause to happen?

Incrementality: Measuring What Really Drives Sales

Marketers need a measurement framework that reflects real revenue growth. For too long, we’ve confused campaign activity with impact. A branded search click might look like a win in your analytics platform, but if that customer was already going to buy, did the campaign really change the outcome?

This is where incrementality comes in. Rather than focusing on what happened after someone saw an ad, incrementality focuses on what changed because they saw it. It works by comparing audiences who are exposed to an ad to those who are not, allowing marketers to isolate the sales lift that can be tied directly to their campaign.

The results can be surprising. Marketers often discover that some of their "best performing" channels are simply taking credit for conversions that would have happened anyway, while undercredited channels like CTV are quietly driving meaningful lift.

This shift is particularly meaningful for retail. Direct-to-consumer players can easily measure clicks, but they aren’t getting a complete picture of campaign performance and which tactics are moving the needle. Meanwhile, for retail brands whose customers often buy in-store, like CPG or beauty, this visibility means top-of-funnel creative efforts that were previously unmeasurable can now be tied directly to business outcomes. Brands like American Eagle Outfitters and Poppi are already embracing this approach, using creativity to fuel brand-building and increase long-term valuation, with data to prove it.

The New Gold Standard for Retail Performance

Incrementality, however, isn’t a magic switch. It demands rigorous testing, alignment and (sometimes uncomfortable) truths about what’s really working. But its rise signals something bigger: a shift in how performance marketers operate.

Rising costs, declining organic reach, privacy restrictions, and growing consumer distrust on social platforms have forced brands to rethink the way they measure and prove value. Incrementality meets this moment by offering a level of transparency and accountability that the industry’s click-based math hasn’t been able to deliver.

CTV is just the beginning. As retail marketing continues to evolve, the brands that succeed in the next era will be those that treat measurement as a strategic advantage, not just a reporting exercise. They’ll use incrementality not only to optimize campaigns, but guide creative investment, media mix decisions, and even product strategy.

Soon, the ability to measure true impact across both clickable and non-clickable touchpoints will separate market leaders from the rest. The question now is less about if incrementality will become the gold standard of measurement, but how quickly your brand is ready to make the leap.

Arthur Querou is CEO of Vibe.co,  the only self-serve, end-to-end connected TV ad platform built to deliver measurable performance on streaming.