Will UPS Go On Strike?

As the calendar inches closer to a July 31 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement between the United Parcel Service (UPS) and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (IBT), the parcel industry is beginning to ask the question, will UPS go on strike?

In my view, it's highly unlikely. UPS is simply too profitable and has too much to lose to allow a labor dispute with the IBT to occur. But then again, I incorrectly said the same thing in 1997 prior to the eventual strike that shut UPS down for 15 days.

At issue are differences over two master labor agreements set to expire at the end of July: one, the 2008-2013 UPS National Master Agreement for small parcel that covers approximately 250,000 IBT members and, two, the 2008-2013 UPS Freight Agreement which impacts about 13,000 workers.

Although the two sides began negotiations 10 months early and progress has reportedly been made, a deal hasn't yet been reached. In each of the past two negotiations (2002 and 2008), a deal was reached well before the existing agreements expired.

What's the status of contract negotiations, on what issues do the sides remain far apart, and when is resolution expected? While UPS won't discuss the substance of what's said at the negotiating table, it has confirmed that progress is being made, the relationship is a positive one, and it fully believes an agreement will be reached prior to the expiration of the existing contract. IBT, for its part, has provided regular updates on its website every few weeks.

Clearly, the 10-month head start to negotiations has led to early progress. Initial negotiations have centered mostly on "noneconomic" issues. Primary IBT issues and concerns include the following:

• limiting UPS's ability to subcontract or use non-IBT supervisors for union work;
• allowing union employees to accumulate discretionary days;
• giving part-time union workers the opportunity to move into full-time work;
• concerns regarding work conditions and health/safety issues;
• excessive overtime for drivers that work nine-and-a-half hours on three days in one workweek;
• "harassment" issues, including nonunion UPS supervisors riding with union drivers that file grievances; and
• protecting Teamster jobs threatened by the growth of UPS SurePost, a parcel product in which lightweight, low-value residential packages are tendered to the U.S. Postal Service for "final mile" delivery.

The two sides have reportedly reached tentative agreements on many of these noneconomic issues, although a source stated the harassment issue is still being hotly negotiated.