Report: US Retail Hiring Expected to Drop to Lowest Level Since 2009

Seasonal hiring in U.S. retail is expected to drop to its lowest in 16 years, according to a new report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The job placement firm said it expects retailers to add less than 500,000 positions for the last three months of 2025; the last time the number was that low was in 2009.

Retailers added 543,100 jobs in the final quarter of 2024. Andy Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said while we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprisingly surge, the pattern of seasonal hiring so far seems to indicate companies aren't betting on it. 

“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” said Challenger. 

CNBC reported that at this time last year, retailers including Target, Macy's, Burlington Stores, Aldi, and 1-800-Flowers had already announced the number of seasonal workers they planned to hire for the holiday season. However, so far none of those companies have disclosed how many workers they plan to hire this holiday season. Last year, Target announced it would hire 100,000 seasonal workers; this year, the company said it's offering additional hours to its current employees and tapping into its flexible "on-demand" team of about 43,000 store team members.

Total Retail's Take: The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report released this week indicates that retailers are preparing for the holiday spending season to be lower than expected, and thus are taking precautions and avoiding the risk of over-hiring in a year marked by tariffs, inflation, and unpredictable demand. The retailers that will come out strong on the other side of the holiday season will be the ones investing in automation, AI, and training. As Challenger put it, "This year may be more about doing more with less." Retailers that can strike the balance between lean staffing and maintaining customer satisfaction will be best positioned to convert healthy sales momentum into profitable growth.