Consumers Are Choosing Between Convenience or Experience. Big-Box Retailers Offer Neither

Holiday shopping trends revealed a sharp divide within the retail industry, and big-box stores are caught in the middle.

Industry consumer spending data from the biggest pre-Christmas weekend of the year, Black Friday/Small Business Saturday, shows a clear bifurcation of shopping habits. Mid-market retailers report stagnant growth and missed targets, like Target’s 16 percent profit slip during Q3, but that’s really the result of consumer dollars headed in two directions: toward convenience shopping for commodities and experience-based shopping at local businesses.

While the headlines report Walmart and Amazon.com's earnings calls each quarter, we don’t often hear how small businesses along Main Street are doing. This is despite the fact that the hundreds of thousands of independent retailers collectively account for $3.74 trillion in sales — a little over half (51.5 percent) of all retail sales.

We might expect these independent retailers to struggle in the face of today’s economic uncertainty, but many are thriving as consumers opt out of shopping at large chains in favor of smaller local options.

Our tracking data on the roughly 20,000 small businesses served by our software reveals they not only held steady for foot traffic around Small Business Saturday, but actually grew sales by 4.4 percent compared to 2024.

It’s important to note that these retailers didn’t necessarily attract more customers, but the same number of customers spent more during their shopping trips, showing a willingness to spend where it matters.

Recent data from Mastercard and analytics firm RetailNext, which pointed to tepid growth (1.7 percent) and declining store visits (-3.4 percent), respectively, reinforces that this trend is underway.

Why are customers consistently choosing Main Street retailers?

Let’s look to the arts and crafts sector for an example.

National chains Party City and Joann Fabrics closed all locations last year due to declining sales, stiff competition, and changing consumer behaviors. They couldn’t provide the personalized, high-touch experience and specialized inventory that customers were looking for, nor could they compete with Amazon and Walmart on price.

Local shops in this sector are faring much better. Craft stores and quilt shops experienced a 15 percent sales increase in just the first weekend of the holiday season (Black Friday to Small Business Saturday).

Small businesses still feel pressure to compete with online giants, but many have embraced artificial intelligence and invested in e-commerce platforms to craft an omnichannel experience. This allows them to provide pickup and delivery options for customers who want to support Main Street while enjoying the convenience of e-commerce.

As we move further into 2026, it’s likely this trend persists. Today’s consumers see the value in supporting local businesses, and they’re eager to spend more on goods and services they feel are worth more — whether hand-picked notions from a family-owned fabric store, farm-fresh steaks from their local market, or a curated selection of bottles from their neighborhood wine shop.

And with more independent retailers establishing themselves online, they're positioned to capture market share from e-commerce giants.

The future is bright for the independently owned businesses along Main Street, which is why they deserve a place alongside Wall Street giants in our economic projections.

Andrew Stern is the CEO of Quilt, a fast-growing technology company serving over 20,000 independent specialty retailers.