Behavioral Returns: Why the Industry is Solving the Returns Problem at the Wrong End

Global e-commerce returns reached nearly $850 billion in 2025, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), and the number keeps climbing. The industry's response is a familiar one: stricter return policies, return fees, warehouse process optimization. However, these measures treat symptoms. The real cause lies elsewhere, and earlier. It forms in the consumer's mind long before the package ever reaches the front door.

parcelLab, a specialist in the post-purchase experience, draws attention to a blind spot affecting the entire industry: returns are not isolated, spontaneous decisions, but the result of long-term psychological and emotional patterns — and they can be influenced at the very point where they arise.

Behavior Precedes the Decision

Studies in consumer psychology on return behavior show that, over time, customers develop specific routines that are significantly shaped by their previous shopping experiences. Research indicates that the timing of discounts, the quality of delivery information, past experiences with returns, and the perceived effort involved in returning an item all have a direct influence on whether a product is kept or not.

Particularly revealing is that female consumers often state they've returned products because the information provided during the ordering or delivery process was inaccurate, misleading or incomplete. A single bad experience therefore not only leaves a dissatisfied customer, it creates a pattern of behavior.

The Underestimated Phase: Post-Purchase

Hardly any other moment in the customer journey is as emotionally charged — and at the same time as neglected — as the post-purchase phase. As soon as a product is on its way, customers’ expectations rise significantly. Inaccurate tracking information, implausible status updates, or a lack of updates create uncertainty during this phase. If this experience is repeated, an impression takes hold: this brand is unreliable.

This emotional distance gives rise to a pattern of behavior that systematically increases the likelihood of returns. The figures underscore the significance of this: A joint study by UPS and the NRF shows that 90 percent of customers would buy from the same brand again following a positive delivery or returns experience. No other touchpoint has such a direct impact on business results and on future behavior.

A Paradigm Shift is Long Overdue

Despite these findings, companies continue to focus almost exclusively on operational efficiency. parcelLab advocates a fundamental shift in perspective away from backward-looking process adjustments and towards a behavior-based understanding of returns.

In concrete terms, this means:

• Uncertainty during the ordering and delivery process leads to impulsive purchasing decisions that are later regretted.
• A lack of transparency breeds mistrust, a key psychological trigger for returns.
• Clear, reliable and context-sensitive communication boosts the sense of security and has been shown to reduce the likelihood of returns.
• The more consistently expectations are set and met, the lower the returns rate.

Large-scale analyses also confirm that emotional attachment to the brand acts as a key protective factor against returns. The more positive experiences customers have had previously, the lower their returns rate.

Proactive Rather Than Reactive: Rethinking the Post-Purchase Phase

parcelLab recommends that retailers no longer treat the post-purchase phase as a mere logistical afterthought, but rather as a critical moment for shaping customer behavior. Measures that take a preventative rather than a reactive approach are particularly effective:

• Precise delivery commitments that are realistic and reliable.
• Context-based communication that keeps customers informed exactly when they need it.
• A clear, seamless returns process that builds trust rather than erodes it.
• Early identification of critical moments in the customer journey before uncertainty arises.

Returns aren’t triggered in the warehouse. They begin in the customer’s mind at the moment of purchase. Understanding behavior not only reduces costs, but also builds lasting trust.

Anton Eder is COO and co-founder of parcelLab, a global leader in post-purchase experience software.