Adobe Forecasts Record $23.8B Prime Day Spend for Retailers

The Prime Day sales event is an industry-wide moment for e-commerce, with discounts happening broadly across U.S. retailers in the month of July. Adobe released its forecast on Monday, covering the period from July 8 to July 11. U.S. retailers are expected to drive a record $23.8 billion in online spend from July 8 to July 11, representing 28.4 percent growth year- over-year — and $9.6 billion more than the comparable period last year. This is equivalent to two Black Fridays, which drove $10.8 billion in online spend during the 2024 holiday shopping season.

Adobe’s report provides a comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories.

Total Retail's Take: Retailers and brands are looking to capitalize on the increased e-commerce traffic this week by appealing to budget-conscious consumers with significant deals and discounts. Overall, discounts across U.S. retailers will be in the range of 10 percent to 24 percent (off listed price), according to Adobe. In addition to securing great deals, consumers are expected to take advantage of the mid-summer sales event to stock up on back-to-school items. For example, Adobe is forecasting a boost in online sales for backpacks and lunchboxes (up 225 percent compared to the daily average in June 2025), kid’s apparel (up 200 percent), and general school/office supplies (up 180 percent).

To help pay for their purchases, consumers will be utilizing buy now, pay later (BNPL) services in greater numbers. During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects BNPL to drive between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion of overall online spend. This represents an 8 percent share, up from 7.6 percent last year.