4 Lessons Learned From the 2025 Holiday Shopping Season

The way people shop during the holidays has shifted so dramatically that the old idea of a single “peak” moment no longer fits. What used to be a frantic sprint around Black Friday and Cyber Monday has stretched into something slower, more deliberate and, frankly, more interesting.

Consumers are buying earlier, using artificial intelligence to navigate the chaos. They're choosing brands that feel like they actually know them. If retailers keep playing by the old rules, they’ll miss where demand is already moving. The opportunity for 2026 isn't about squeezing more into a single weekend; it’s about understanding how motivations have changed and meeting consumers where they actually are.

Lesson No. 1: Shoppers are more planned and practical.

One of the clearest shifts in 2025 was just how intentional shoppers became. In Quantum Metric’s latest benchmark report, nearly half said they started holiday buying before Black Friday, and close to a quarter expected to wrap up before Thanksgiving. Yet only about 15 percent took advantage of October promotions.

What’s driving the change? Practicality. Consumers aren’t moving earlier because they’re chasing deals. They’re spreading out purchases to stay on budget, reduce stress, and compare their options without the pressure of a ticking clock. Many are also leaning into more practical gifts — groceries, essentials, gift cards — choices that reflect where their real priorities lie.

They're taking more time to balance needs and wants, and to validate whether an item is genuinely worth purchasing. This is where retailers can respond with longer promotional and sales strategies that emphasize value, not urgency. Consider season-long markdowns or personalized bundles of items that go well together.

Lesson No. 2: Personalization, not promotions drive greater loyalty.

While promotions remain important, shoppers in 2025 showed a clear preference for brands that understand them. Our research showed nearly 70 percent said they prefer to shop with brands they already trust, and six in 10 favored personalized deals over generic ones. Even promo behavior is changing: nearly 80 percent of consumers used codes that came directly from a brand, not from third-party apps.

This shift underscores that holiday success is no longer about shouting the loudest deal. It’s about delivering the right value to the right customer at the right moment.

Retailers need to have an in-depth understanding of customer behavior, adjust offers dynamically, and reward engagement across the entire season. For the digital teams that manage these experiences it’s all about understanding your different segments of shoppers and their differing needs. Blanket discounts won’t build loyalty. Personalized value will.

Lesson No. 3: Every interaction now carries more weight.

As shopping journeys stretched, so did the number of touchpoints leading to a purchase. On average, shoppers visited a retailer’s site two to three times (four to six if it was a high-value purchase), often across different days and devices. That means consistency matters in page load times, messaging, navigation, and even small design choices.

Even minor friction now has major consequences. Retailers that lowered error rates by just over 20 percent year-over-year saw average order values rise by more than 20 percent. When the experience gets smoother, revenue follows.

Shoppers increasingly equate ease with trust and reward those who build better experiences. The takeaway: optimizing only when something breaks isn’t enough. The brands that grow are the ones that fix the obvious issues and elevate the interactions that are merely “fine.” Shoppers reward ease, and they reward it repeatedly.

Lesson No. 4: AI is creating a new playbook.

AI transformed holiday shopping in 2025. Consumers actively incorporated AI into their browsing and buying journeys, with more than 40 percent using AI to compare or discover holiday purchases. AI-driven traffic rose dramatically, up more than 700 percent year-to-date.

We're seeing a shift toward conversational searches and intention-driven requests. Instead of navigating menus, shoppers asked AI for “gifts under $50,” “ideas for travelers,” or “alternatives to trending items,” prompting faster, more personalized discovery.

However, the bigger story is in purchase performance, with AI seeing 2X higher conversion rates across peak holiday periods vs. traditional traffic sources. A great example of this was on Cyber Monday, when conversions overall were up 10 percent over the rest of the weekend and AI-driven order values were 10 percent to 15 percent higher than traditional traffic for small-cart retailers. This shows how AI supports spontaneous purchases, helping consumers make sure they got all the best deals of the season.

For retailers, there are two major takeaways. First, if you aren’t already tracking AI referrals, you need to start and assess how those consumers behave on your site or app.

Second, it’s time to start considering how AI agent traffic will shift holiday purchasing for 2026. If AI referrals already lean towards the best deals and spontaneous buys, we can assume that will be even more of the case for agents. AI has no brand loyalty. It surfaces the best price and the best experience. If yours falls short, it will route shoppers elsewhere — instantly.

The holiday season isn’t shrinking. It’s stretching into a longer, more complex pattern of decisions, interactions and motivations. Shoppers are planning earlier, expecting more relevance, demanding smoother experiences, and relying on AI to help them make confident choices.

Winning in 2026 will require retailers to shift resources toward predictive insights, continuous optimization, and personalized engagement. The brands that adapt won’t mourn the loss of “peak weekend.” They’ll discover a far bigger opportunity hiding in the new shape of holiday demand.

Megan Hastings is director of customer success insight services at Quantum Metric, where she works closely with select Fortune 500 retail brands to help them understand and act on digital customer behavior.