Are Matchbacks Accurate?
I have observed instances where circulation is twice as deep as it should be, simply because the matchback algorithm is overstating actual results as measured by mail/holdout tests.
The impact on profitability can be significant. I’ve seen instances where a $50 million catalog brand loses $1.5 million of profit due to overcirculation caused by matchback analytics. For some catalog brands, that’s as much profit as the brand generates in an entire year!
Please consider a three-month, six-month or annual holdout test segment, so you may accurately measure the true impact of your catalog and email marketing activities. Considering that mail/holdout tests almost always indicate more conservative results than matchback analytics, your profit-and-loss statement is likely to improve if you employ this style of testing!