Searching for Answers Ahead of the Holiday Rush

With shoppers stocking up early to get ahead of tariffs, this holiday shopping season is expected to look different from years past. Getting an early start on deals and emphasizing value is now table stakes for acquiring customers. This year, brands need to be especially mindful to meet consumers where they are. Let's dig into the data.

Digging for Decor

Through July 2025, holiday anticipation is already stirring, as decor, ornaments, and advent calendars have all seen sizable gains in searches among consumers. Compared to the same January to July time frame in 2024, searches for holiday decor and ornaments are indexing up 1.8x, while advent calendars and ugly sweaters are indexing up 1.34x and 1.27x, respectively.

Christmas decorations are expected to be especially hard hit by tariffs, as specialty retailers like Balsam Hill are offering fewer products due to pricing uncertainty. Similarly, some retailers are scaling back their holiday product offerings altogether so they don’t lose money on unsold inventory. With decorations in limbo, consumers are searching months in advance to ensure they’re not experiencing the winter blues by the time the holidays hit.

The New Holiday Gift

Consumers are also mapping out charitable giving and in-person experiences like concerts and shows, with searches indexing up 1.41x and 1.34x over the same time period last year. Amid the uncertainty around tariffs, shoppers could instead be seeking out alternatives to typical gifts like clothing or electronics and appliances. Data from the U.S. Commerce Department shows that computers, electronics and clothing are among the most imported goods, so they’re more likely to be impacted by rising tariffs and then pass those increases on to consumers.

Additionally, other consumers might be waiting to see how everything shakes out before making purchases. For example, if they were to lose their jobs, they would instead need to save money and would cut back on gift purchases. Others might be waiting to see how much prices will rise, as CivicScience data shows that 12 percent of U.S. consumers are waiting to purchase goods to see if prices go up, while 19 percent are delaying purchases altogether.

Early search trends are suggesting a lesser importance for holiday shopping staples — both dates and categories alike.  As searches for decorations and experiences increase, “Christmas in July” promotions and holiday social planning weren't growing as much, as “Christmas in July” searches were up 0.52x and holiday party planning searches were up 0.70x from last year.

However, early Black Friday searches are on the rise, as searches are up 19 percent over the last eight weeks as of mid-August. Typically, searches for Black Friday start later in the calendar year, with searches increasing in October in 2023 and in September in 2024. This could suggest that consumers are starting to feel the impact of tariffs and therefore starting to shift their view to the more traditional shopping period.

The Road Ahead

With these sales largely on the back burner for now, marketers should instead lean into inspiration and goodwill before shifting to promotional messaging as demand builds. For retailers that stock holiday decorations, they can provide styling options or decoration suggestions, encouraging consumers to shop now while products are in stock.

Retailers can also consider partnering with specific charitable organizations or live experiences to win over shoppers who are seeking out alternative gifting options this year. For instance, Target can partner with Radio City Music Hall by offering a discounted holiday outfit with a proof of purchase for tickets to the Rockettes. This ensures the retailer is still able to capitalize on the holiday season and minimize the effects of tariffs on other parts of its business.

In addition, retailers can prioritize stock based on metrics such as search lift, reflecting what consumers are looking for at the moment. Retailers can use endcaps to stock the hottest items during a specific time period and swap out products as searches shift. For example, right now decorations are popular, but electronics might make a comeback in the coming weeks following the release of new iPhones. In that example, retailers can swap out inventory to anticipate the shift in demand.

With competition expected to be fierce this holiday season, retailers should consider all options to stand out from the crowd. If you haven't already started preparing for the holidays, you're already too late. Welcome to the new holiday retail landscape.

Oscar Chow is the head of U.S. insights at Captify, a leading provider of search intelligence.