Revisiting My 2021 Predictions on the Future of Retail Technology

In 2021, I told Total Retail readers that retailers were two years away from pivotal innovations across several key technology trends. I argued that we would begin to feel the convergence of these technologies happen in 2023, and that retailers would need to get moving — then — to be in a position to succeed, now.

With 2023 now in the books, let’s see how things stand.

AI

The innovation pivot year from artificial intelligence has come even stronger and faster for retailers than I anticipated. While no one knew exactly how it would materialize, I think it became evident on Nov. 30, 2022 — the day ChatGPT launched. Since then, ChatGPT, generative AI, and other AI-based large language models (LLMs) now used by retailers and, well, everyone else, have had a tremendous impact on business. AI use cases are bubbling up everywhere and greatly accelerated retailers’ projected timelines for adoption. I predicted a mature $98 billion AI market in 2023; it’s actually now at $150.2 billion and projected to reach $1.345 trillion by 2030. At this point, I would bet on AI again beating expectations.

5G

In 2021, I predicted 1 billion 5G connected devices by 2023. Not bad, I was only off by … billions. As it turned out, the 5G devices market is now expected to hit 3 billion units in 2023, and grow at a CAGR of 61.76 percent to reach 33-plus billion units by 2028. My statements about 5G capabilities — enabling networks up to 100 times faster than 4G and reducing latency to one millisecond — are coming true. Qualcomm published that 5G’s full economic effect will likely be realized across the globe by 2035. It thinks it will enable up to $13.1 trillion worth of goods and services.

IoT

I expected powerful AI edge processors to drive global Internet of Things-product spending over $1 trillion by 2023. The projected figures are lower. However, my prediction that 25 percent of IoT endpoint devices and systems will execute AI algorithms by 2023 does align with current trends. The integration of AI into IoT devices has advanced, with the storage and processing capabilities of chips (that are getting increasingly minuscule) enabling individual connected devices to have localized intelligence and edge computing capabilities.

IoT technology is now establishing transformative retail experiences. Companies like Williot, an Israeli startup with investments from Qualcomm and Amazon.com, are turning IoT chips into labels that can stick on bottles and be sewn into clothing, enabling frictionless checkout and smart supply chains.

AR/VR

While far less heralded than AI, the combined augmented reality/virtual reality markets are still going strong and expected to hit about $100 billion by 2028. However, my specific prediction that Amazon.com, Alphabet (Google), Apple, and Meta (Facebook) would each launch eyeglasses with AR capabilities by 2023 wasn't fully realized. They keep trying with substantial investments into core technologies powering the next computing platforms, including eyewear and related technologies like bone conduction.

A number of startups are now arguably advancing the category faster than large tech firms.

Companies like Mojo Vision and InWith are developing prototypes with intricate microLED displays and depth sensors for advanced AR functionality that could change the way shoppers experience physical stores.

Voice

As anticipated, the integration of voice recognition in retail has offered countless opportunities for competitive differentiation and forging strong customer relationships. One reason is that voice recognition error rates have decreased by over 30 percent in the past two years due to advances in deep learning algorithms and LLMs. If anything, voice technology implementations in retail have exceeded my 2021 expectations. Voice AI advances, such as from startups like Instreamatic, are also changing how retailers connect with consumers via audio and video ad campaigns.

Blockchain

While nothing can compete for attention with AI right now, blockchain continues to grow. My 2021 predictions (really, Gartner’s) that blockchain would support global movement and tracking of $2 trillion in goods and services as well as decrease brand access to customer data by 30 percent haven’t verifiably panned out. That said, blockchain has seen significant growth, quietly becoming foundational to retail commerce.

Low-Code Development

As predicted, low-code development platforms have experienced significant growth since 2021, with the adoption of drag-and-drop interfaces and visual development tools enabling accelerated software and application development. The simplicity of low-code and no-code development has indeed created a new class of citizen developers, aligning with my prediction that this emergence will increase the number of developers by 30 percent. New code-generation LLMs (we have our own, AppCoder) now offer the potential of AI software-writing systems embedded into low-code platforms, reducing the need for manual coding and significantly accelerating retail application development cycles.

Looking Forward ... Again

The true potential of digital innovation heading into 2024 is in the synergy among these technologies. For retailers, the technologies in today’s digital ecosystem will feed off each other to accelerate innovation. The march of change will continue, and we’ll be pleasantly surprised all over again.

Jon Nordmark is the CEO and co-founder of Iterate.ai, whose AI innovation ecosystem enables retailers and other businesses to build production-ready applications.