NRF Forecasts 2025 Holiday Sales to Top $1 Trillion
With retail sales making a comeback in October — growing a little more than half a percent from last month and 5 percent year-over-year (YoY) — the National Retail Federation (NRF) is predicting that when the holidays are over, U.S. consumers will have spent over $1 trillion.
That represents a 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent increase over the holiday period in 2024, when holiday sales hit $976 billion. The October sales numbers come from the Retail Monitor. Unlike U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the Retail Monitor is powered by real, anonymized credit and debit card transaction data. Alternatively, The US Census Bureau reported that total retail sales in October reached approximately $718.9 billion, up 0.4 percent month-over-month and 2.8 percent YoY.
E-commerce — and specifically, artificial intelligence — will play a starring role in holiday shopping as well, according to new data from Adobe Analytics. Online spending hit $88.7 billion in October 2025, up 8.2 percent YoY, as early holiday deals and Amazon’s Prime Day event drove shoppers online.
Notably, Adobe identified an inflection point in AI-driven shopping behavior: Traffic from generative AI sources surged 1,200 percent YoY and converted 16 percent more often than traditional sources, marking a major shift in how consumers discover and complete purchases online. Social media and influencer-driven channels also gained ground, with online revenue from social traffic up 28 percent YoY, underscoring the growing influence of AI discovery tools and social commerce on the path to purchase heading into the 2025 holiday season.
According to NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay, three main legs are supporting this consumer spending that will bring in more than $1 trillion in sales by the end of December: wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment, and “wealth effects” from strong stock market valuations.
The NRF’s latest holiday survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, found that consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. The amount is the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
Total Retail's Take: The $1 trillion projection comes as a strong signal for the industry: despite macroeconomic headwinds, consumers are staying active. Based upon this relatively upbeat outlook, retailers should align their technology, fulfillment, and merchandising strategies accordingly. The outlook for the 2025 holiday season is cautiously optimistic for retailers; consumers are spending, momentum is present, and the $1 trillion threshold is within reach. The key question now is how well retailers execute on the technology, AI and fulfilment capabilities that allow them to convert that spending potential into profitable growth.
