NRF: Tariffs, Inflation Sparking Earlier Back-to-School Shopping

A new survey from the National Retail Federation (NRF) released Tuesday reveals that shoppers are already spending for the back-to-school season in the face of looming tariffs and high inflation.

The NRF surveyed 7,581 consumers during the first week of July to find out their shopping habits for the fall back-to-school period. The association found that 67 percent of respondents have already started buying items for the upcoming school year — that's the highest percentage since the NRF began tracking early back-to-school shopping in 2018. Additionally, more than half (51 percent) of families say they are starting shopping earlier this year specifically out of concern that prices will rise due to tariffs.

“Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. “As shoppers look for the best deals on clothes, notebooks and other school-related items, retailers are highly focused on affordability and making the shopping experience as seamless as possible."

Still, most respondents (84 percent) said they still have at least half of their purchases left to complete. Forty-seven percent of those respondents said they're waiting for the best deals, while 39 percent said they were waiting to hear what items were needed for the school year, and 24 percent said they were planning to spread out their budgets.

The NRF report also provided some estimated back-to-school budgets: Families with students in elementary through high school said they planned to spend an average of $858 on clothing, shoes, school supplies and electronics, down $16 from last year. The NRF predicts that total spending on back-to-school items will be $39.4 billion this year, up from $38.8 billion last year.

Deloitte, which released its back-to-school survey last week, found that families are pulling back in all categories except clothing and accessories, and plan to spend an average of $570 per child, similar to last year. Fifty-two percent of parents surveyed said they plan to cut back on other areas such as eating out and entertainment in order to budget for back-to-school shopping.

Total Retail's Take: The data from both reports — as well as early analyses of the overall retail impact of Amazon's 2025 Prime Day sales event — shows that consumers are taking advantage of summer deals amid a volatile economic period. Deloitte's survey found that consumers are willing to switch to more affordable brands, and more than half of those surveyed by Deloitte said they were anxious about the potential for higher prices on back-to-school items.

For retailers, this acceleration requires strategic adjustments to marketing campaigns and forecasting. This shopper cautiousness could also extend into the holiday season. For retailers, Deloitte suggests that now is the time to test promotions and messaging, shore up loyalty programs, and reach younger generations through the proper tech channels.