Inflation is Reshaping Holiday 2025: How Brands Can Win Over the Value-Driven Consumer

The U.S. is in for a gritty holiday season as consumers will walk a tightrope between emotion and financial restraint over the next few months. The pressure always ramps up this time of the year because it’s the bulk of how many B2C businesses make their revenue. But what if consumers don’t want to give too much?

According to Basis Technologies’ 2025 Holiday Shopping Trends Report, nearly half of U.S. consumers (49 percent) say they plan to spend as little as possible on gifting this year, yet 90 percent plan to spend the same or more than they did last year.

For brands, this could be challenging, but there are still ways to win. Marketers need to meet shoppers where they are, offering a meaningful experience throughout the entire shopping journey.

Cautious, Not Cutbacks

High prices remain a significant pain point for shoppers. Last year, 38 percent of shoppers cited price as their biggest frustration during the holiday season, and that sentiment is already shaping this year’s holiday season. This year, more than two-thirds of shoppers say it's important to stick to a budget.

Brands can win loyalty through smart pricing strategies, faster fulfillment, and inventory availability. This builds trust with consumers by removing friction where it counts the most. The most successful brands will be the ones that acknowledge shoppers’ mixed financial mindsets while highlighting value, flexibility, and emotional relevance.

Always-On Shopping

Shoppers are no longer waiting for Black Friday and Cyber Monday for the best deals. Holiday shopping is starting earlier each year, a trend accelerated in 2025 by looming tariffs. Total retail sales in July were up 5.89 percent compared to last year, driven by summer sales from major retailers like Amazon.com and Walmart. With shoppers breaking away from the traditional holiday rush, brands need to rethink their strategies to fill consumer demand as they travel through the shopping journey.

With budgets tight, connecting with shoppers as early as possible is key. Brands need to rethink their promotional calendars by spreading out offers and building excitement throughout the year. For example, Amazon Prime Day and Walmart Deals have demonstrated how extending beyond a single sales moment can capture attention. To stay relevant, brands need to create messaging that evolves, delivering timely offers that resonate at every stage of the buying process.

Emotional Relevance

Consumers want to see their diverse identities and traditions acknowledged during the holidays. Half say that holiday traditions connect them to their cultural background, and more than half appreciate when brands adapt their messaging to reflect a range of winter celebrations.

Cost-conscious consumers want to feel confident and connected to what they're spending money on. The brands that truly win over shoppers this holiday season will be the ones that launch emotionally resonant campaigns early, tapping into the spirit of tradition and meaningful connection. Brands that lead with warmth, personalization, and a sense of festive purpose in their advertising will be best positioned to win over shoppers searching for thoughtful gifts that matter.

While consumers don’t seem to be ready to cut back drastically this holiday season, they will want to spend smarter. As consumers become more thoughtful about where and how they spend their money, they're increasingly looking for value in multiple aspects in every purchase. Brands that understand this shift and align with evolving consumer needs will thrive during the holiday season and beyond.

Maggie Nemoy is vice president of research and insights at Basis Technologies, an automated and comprehensive advertising platform.