What Did Back-to-School Teach Us About the Holiday Season?

Parents around the country have caught their breath after surviving another back-to-school frenzy, and retailers are debriefed from the summertime rush while also preparing for the upcoming holiday season. What lessons can brands learn from this year’s back-to-school period as they execute their plans for the end of the year? Back-to-school has long been the bellwether for consumer behavior, and this year offered plenty of insights. From timing to technology to tariffs, there’s a lot to unpack.

There’s No Time Like the Present

This year, more than two-thirds (67 percent) of families started their back-to-school shopping by early July, well over a month ahead of schedule. For many, this head start was a direct response to rising costs. Shoppers wanted to spread out their spending and take advantage of every deal they could find.

Retailers should expect a similar pattern to emerge for the holidays. Prices remain high and shoppers want to save every dollar they can. Brands that roll out discounts and promotions early are likely to win customers sooner and keep them through the holiday season.

Digital Experiences Matter

While price is a major consideration for shoppers, it’s not the only one. Convenience matters, too. This summer, retailers recognized parents’ hectic schedules and tried to make shopping as easy as possible. Retailers rolled out user-friendly mobile apps, curbside pickup, and buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS) options so parents could complete purchases on-the-go.

Convenient, digital and omnichannel offerings will matter just as much this holiday season. As the holidays draw nearer, everyone’s calendars get pushed to the limit. Retailers should continue to make it easy for consumers to check items off their list during their busy days. That means ensuring seamless e-commerce experiences and leveraging mobile push alerts or list-making tools to help customers stay on track.

Retailers Can’t Compete Without AI

Back-to-school is competitive for brands, with each trying to outdo the other on promotions. However, it’s not always about the biggest discount — relevancy matters just as much. By analyzing shopper behavioral data (e.g., email opens, clicks, browsing patterns, purchase history and scroll depth), artificial intelligence can help retailers tailor promotions for each customer. A well-timed, resonant 20 percent off coupon can beat a generic 30 percent off on stuff they don’t need.

Behind the scenes, AI also helps brands forecast demand, manage inventory, and optimize returns. Leveraging AI is no longer a nice-to-have. Those who aren’t using AI may find it hard to keep up.

Tariffs Have Changed the Game

Geopolitical factors gave this year’s back-to-school season an extra wrinkle. When retailers were preparing for the rush, many new tariffs on consumer goods had been announced but not yet taken effect. Most school gear (e.g., backpacks, electronics, clothes) is imported, so brands braced for cost increases by bringing in extra inventory early before the tariffs hit. That proactive stockpiling kept prices and promotions stable through the summer.

However, that overstock has since been depleted, and now retailers must replenish inventories at the new, higher costs. As a result, we’re likely to see smaller discounts or even price hikes on popular items as the holiday season progresses. Savvy shoppers will get their purchasing done early; those who wait may face fewer choices and bigger receipts come December. Retailers should proactively encourage shoppers to start their holiday purchasing early to take advantage of current pricing.

It’s not too late for retailers to put the finishing touches on their holiday strategies. By reflecting on lessons learned from the back-to-school season, brands can meet the moment, win consumers’ business, and set themselves up for success heading into 2026.

Lesley Simmonds is vice president, global retail industry strategies, Blue Yonder, an end-to-end supply chain management solutions provider.