Sweating Through Summer to Save the Holidays: Tariffs, Tight Timelines, and the Warehouse Crunch

It's still iced coffee season. Pavement is shimmering in the late summer heat. However, inside warehouses across the country, teams are already in holiday mode planning for a peak season that's coming faster than the first frost.

This year, the usual holiday rush comes with an extra twist of a chaotic tariff climate. Sweeping increases on imports from the EU, Brazil, India, and China, some reaching 50 percent, are squeezing margins and complicating every stocking decision. A 90-day pause on higher China tariffs offers a momentary cool breeze, but uncertainty still looms. Economists warn that once tariffs take root, they tend to stick around long after the trade storms have supposedly passed.

In other words, there's no time to wait for cooler weather.

A Tariff Season That's Here to Stay

Recent trade tensions have thrown the retail supply chain into overdrive. The U.S.-China tariff roller coaster has seen rates swing as high as 145 percent before settling, now, around 30 percent for many products. According to the Toy Association, 77 percent of toys sold in the U.S. come from China. For some categories, it's even higher. While Vietnam and other countries have picked up some of the slack, their exports still come with tariffs, 20 percent in Vietnam's case.

Though it isn't just toys feeling the pinch. Apparel, electronics, seasonal decor, groceries, and other holiday staples are caught in the crossfire. For businesses, this means higher costs and tough decisions: stock up now and store months' worth of inventory, or gamble on lower tariffs later and risk bare shelves in December.

Stocking Up and Filling Up

Some retailers are taking no chances. One independent toy store in Colorado purchased six months to nine months of inventory early in the year, filling its basement to the brim to avoid paying post-tariff prices. The strategy can work if you have the cash flow, storage space, and confidence that your products will be the ones customers want when holiday shopping begins.

The challenge is that seasonal demand isn't static. A blockbuster movie release, viral trend, or unexpected shift in tastes can leave slow movers gathering dust while shoppers clamor for something you didn't stock in bulk.

Warehouses are already feeling the squeeze as businesses large and small try to get ahead of potential cost increases. Packed facilities mean more strain on picking, packing, and shipping operations, not to mention greater risk of misplaced inventory, device downtime, and even theft.

From Heat Wave to Holiday Chill: Keeping the Supply Chain Moving

Even in August and September, the path to December efficiency starts with smart, agile operations. Here's how to turn the late-summer scramble into a calm, snow-day-smooth holiday season:

1. Cool down the chaos with better warehouse flow.

• Reorganize high-demand items for easy access during peak season.
• Create overflow or staging areas to prevent bottlenecks in picking zones.
• Review slotting strategies to minimize walking distance and speed up fulfillment.

2. Keep things moving with mobile muscle.

• Mobile printers eliminate trips to stationary workstations, allowing instant label and document printing anywhere on the floor.
• Mobile carts help workers move goods quickly without tying up forklifts or pallet jacks.
• Utilize wearable scanners that keep hands free while boosting scan speed because every second counts when orders spike.

3. Track like it's the North Pole.

• Use GPS or RFID tracking devices to monitor high-value, high-risk inventory.
• Implement inventory device management systems to track both products and the technology used to move them with no downtime or disappearing scanners.

4. Shrink shrinkage before it starts.

• Test mobile computers with real-time barcode scanning for instant reconciliation.
• Keep access controls and audit logs to discourage sticky fingers while keeping workflows fast.

5. Have an elf-level backup plan.

• Seek out service contracts with rapid resolution times so broken devices don't grind the line to a halt.
• Hot-swappable spare devices can bridge gaps without slowing fulfillment.

When Tariffs Meet Timing

One of the most difficult parts about tariff-driven planning is uncertainty. Do you commit to a massive order now knowing it could cost double in two months, or do you hold off hoping trade negotiations ease prices? That's the question many small and medium-sized businesses are wrestling with this summer.

Economists warn that waiting can backfire. If tariffs persist or rise, last-minute orders could come with inflated costs and longer lead times, both of which hit harder during the busiest retail months of the year. If tariffs drop, the benefit may be offset by shortages in manufacturing capacity or clogged ports as every retailer rushes to restock at once.

The Customer Impact

Even with smart planning, customers may see higher prices or less variety this holiday season. Inflationary pressures are already in play as recent data shows a 3.5 percent quarterly rise in the Consumer Price Index, which could translate to an annualized 14 percent increase. For budget-conscious shoppers, that means every week counts.

Some experts suggest that shoppers follow the same advice retailers are taking to buy early. Stocking up on gifts in September or October can help consumers beat both the rush and the price hikes.

Holiday Resilience Starts in the Heat

The winter holidays might seem far away while the AC is blasting, but the supply chain doesn't wait for the seasons to change. Operations teams have an opportunity to turn tariffs into efficiency by investing now in mobile-first technology, tight tracking, and guaranteed service backup. The best way to keep December merry is to start sweating the details now.

Ken Feinstein is vice president of MIDCOM Data Technologies, where he helps IT leaders minimize downtime and drive productivity.