Making or Breaking Holiday Shopping

As retailers try to make the best of another holiday season, consumers are clear on what drives their buying behavior, including what makes them walk away. A new UPS Capital Insurance Agency, Inc. survey of U.S. shoppers reveals a shifting set of expectations that will define peak season performance. For retailers, meeting these expectations is no longer optional; it's core to winning customer loyalty.

Delivery Reliability Takes Center Stage

Delivery has emerged as the most critical moment of truth in the shopping journey. Sixty percent of surveyed consumers cite long or uncertain delivery windows as the top reason they abandon their carts, outranking even unexpected shipping costs and high product prices (both 59 percent). While nearly eight in 10 shoppers are comfortable with standard three-day to five-day shipping, they expect clear communication and reliable execution. Repeat issues with late or failed deliveries will cost brands dearly: 45 percent of consumers say such experiences are a dealbreaker for trust.

An Untapped Differentiator

Although awareness of shipping protection remains low, its potential as a differentiator is significant. Only 23 percent of shoppers say they’re very likely to purchase shipping protection this holiday season, yet 17 percent would abandon their cart if it isn’t offered. With 37 percent of consumers having experienced a lost, stolen or damaged package in past holidays, retailers have an opportunity to educate customers and frame protection as a value-add. Bundling protection into loyalty programs or premium shipping options could help normalize adoption and build confidence.

Price, Perks, and Flexibility Still Reign

Despite new trends, the fundamentals still matter most. Price and discounts remain the top driver of retailer choice for 79 percent of consumers, with free shipping a close second at 67 percent. Fulfillment flexibility is also gaining traction, with 43 percent of shoppers using buy online, pick up in-store (BOPIS). The lesson for retailers is clear: omnichannel strategies that blend value and convenience can capture a larger share of spend during the season’s most competitive weeks.

The Hidden Battleground of Returns

The product return experience is another strategic touchpoint with holiday shoppers. More than a quarter of consumers say they avoid returns altogether, while 37 percent say complicated return policies would stop them from completing a purchase. At the same time, preferences are fragmented: 32 percent prefer dropping items off at carrier locations, while 26 percent lean toward in-store returns. Offering flexible, low-effort options like at-home pickups or returnless refunds can reduce friction and encourage purchases in the first place.

Winning Holiday Loyalty

The 2025 peak season will test retailers on fundamentals: clear delivery commitments, transparent pricing, accessible protection, and hassle-free returns. Consumers are sending strong signals, and those that act on them stand to build customer trust, capture wallet share, and drive loyalty well beyond the holidays.

Stephanie Kirby is global vice president of sales at UPS Capital, a financial services division of UPS that offers traditional and nontraditional financial services and insurance products.