2026 Retail Outlook: Where Smart Bets Will Pay Off
As retailers and investors therein plan for 2026, the big picture matters. Expect continued attention to inflation, interest rates, and consumer confidence as each will shape pricing, inventory strategies, and capital allocation.
IP Essentials: Protect the Brand
A brand can be a company’s lifeline — it must be instantly recognizable and consistent across stores, marketplaces and social channels. Treat omnichannel distinctiveness as a core operating principle, not a nice-to-have.
Keep your trademark portfolio clean: audit current marks, shore up international filings to support cross-border e-commerce, and utilize trademark watch services to spot brand misuse early. Build and practice an enforcement playbook, which might include using notice-and-takedown tools, enrolling in e-commerce platform brand registries, and establishing clear escalation paths when issues persist, among other precautions.
Counterfeiting and gray market risks will continue to rise with third‑party marketplace growth. Pair authentication tech and serialization with smart monitoring to deter fakes before they spread. When needed, keep litigation and customs actions ready to protect high‑velocity SKUs and seasonal drops.
Private Equity: Capital With a Playbook
We anticipate that private equity will remain active in the retail investment space where funds see a blueprint for value creation. Several themes have emerged, including supply chain optimization (e.g., inventory and working capital), monetizing loyalty and first‑party data responsibly, and focusing on private-label portfolios. Investors will seek to capitalize on these opportunities through a range of acquisition structures, from carveouts of noncore divisions, roll‑ups in fragmented niches, and growth capital to PIPEs for public retailers seeking flexibility without full takeovers.
This growth is likely to concentrate on resilient segments: specialty and premium concepts, experiential formats, health/beauty and wellness, and discount banners that thrive on value. Furthermore, we believe investors will be focused on consolidation among digital‑native brands and a smarter store footprint — rationalized networks paired with high return on investment flagships and pop-ups that drive discovery and community.
Labor, Employment and Benefits: Build a Resilient Workforce
We expect regulatory movement and enforcement actions at the state level on wage and hour issues, including predictive scheduling, rounding, and worker classification, as well as on restrictive covenants, particularly for multistate employers subject to different state regulatory requirements.
For compliance, employers should update their multistate handbooks to capture state/local nuances, review arbitration and class-action waiver strategies where permissible, and audit worker classification, rounding and other timekeeping practices. Employers should also tighten vendor management for gig and third‑party delivery to reduce joint‑employer and co‑employment risk.
We anticipate that union organizing efforts will continue to expand, including into nontraditional retail employee ranks, and will remain a factor in distribution and fulfillment. Employers should invest in manager training, communication, and compliance readiness.
Automation Will Continue to Reshape Teams
As self‑checkout, robotics, and other artificial intelligence‑assisted services continue to change role design and staffing models, employers should plan for a blended workforce. Make retraining and reskilling standard, support change management, and ensure ADA accommodations are built into tech‑enabled roles. Don't overlook health and safety for back‑of‑house automation and battery-charging environments.
Benefits are a differentiator in a tight labor market. We anticipate that employers will continue to consider expanded mental health support and flexible scheduling where operations allow, as well as variable pay and equity or phantom equity for store and distribution center leaders, with retention bonuses tied to clear key performance indicators.
Specialty Retail Spotlight: Cosmetics
Beauty continues to punch above its weight across all sectors, including luxury and celebrity brands largely fueled by social commerce. Cross‑border demand and the recovery of travel retail add tailwinds. While fast R&D cycles matter, speed cannot come at the expense of solid claims substantiation.
Competition is fierce — indie brand roll‑ups, private label gains, and retailer‑owned brands — but companies must stay current on evolving cosmetics regulations, including ingredient disclosure requirements and adverse event reporting. Marketing must then meet the moment: manage endorsements, testimonials, and controls around AI‑generated content to maintain a competitive edge without becoming the subject of unwanted scrutiny.
The 2026 Playbook
Companies that adopt simple but effective best practices can and will succeed. Success will come from disciplined IP enforcement, strategic capital deployment, tech‑enabled and resilient workforces, and focused bets in specialty categories that align with customer demand. Keep in mind some helpful guidance:
- Refresh IP portfolios and marketplace enforcement.
- Keep PE‑ready diligence files.
- Complete labor compliance audits and upskilling plans.
- Pilot specialty concepts with strong claims support and regulatory readiness.
Nick Bolter, Allison Gargano, Carrie Gonell, Aliza Karetnick, Melissa Rodriguez, and Dan Salemi are partners with Morgan Lewis & Bockius and co-leaders of the firm’s Retail and E-Commerce team.
Nick Bolter is an intellectual property partner with a focus on trademarks and designs and serves as managing partner for the firm’s London office. He represents clients in the selection, prosecution, protection, and enforcement of trademarks, brands, and designs in the United Kingdom and across Europe. His clients include some of the world’s best-known brands in retail, luxury, and apparel, as well online retailers and technology and automotive companies.
Nick is recommended in World Trademark Review’s WTR1000 2020 edition as “one of the top trademark professionals in the world” with clients describing him as “extremely energetic and client focused, and top companies trust him unequivocally—and with good reason.”
Allison D. Gargano advises leading private equity sponsors, family offices, and their portfolio companies on US and cross-border transactions, drawing on more than a decade of experience with leveraged buyouts, growth equity investments, carveout spinoffs, co-investments, and strategic exits. Allison also counsels clients on general corporate and compliance matters. She provides solutions-oriented advice, deep industry insight, and exceptional commercial judgment across industries, including healthcare, sports, retail, and financial services. She serves as co-leader of the firm’s global private equity initiative and co-leader of the retail and ecommerce industry team, as well as pro bono chair for the New York office.
With more than two decades of complex litigation and strategic counseling experience, Carrie Gonell focuses on class, collective, and representative suits and advice in the financial services, retail, technology, and airline industries. She advises on wage and hour compliance issues, such as wage payment, meal/rest breaks, expense reimbursement, suitable seating, and exemption misclassification.
Carrie has litigated federal and state claims in courts throughout California and nationally, including arguing before the California Supreme Court, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth and Second Circuits, and the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation. She has litigated more than 100 complex cases, and successfully compelled arbitration, defeated class certification, limited discovery, defended removals to federal court and helped negotiate many favorable settlements of wage and hour actions.
Carrie is a trusted advisor on employment and compliance issues, leveraging her significant litigation experience to provide practical guidance to limit litigation risks. She has managed numerous cost-effective audits, with a focus on California, to identify wage and hour compliance opportunities and execute solutions. She is a co-leader of the firm’s retail and ecommerce industry team, providing industry-specific thought leadership on cutting-edge legal issues facing retailers on the West Coast and throughout the country.
Carrie also has an active pro bono practice working on immigration issues and family/children’s rights. Human Rights First recognized Morgan Lewis with the Marvin E. Frankel Pro Bono Award in 2019 for outstanding pro bono service on behalf of asylum seekers following three successful grants of asylum within a year on immigration trials that Carrie led. Carrie was also recognized by Sanctuary for Families for her pro bono work in New York family court and has also served as a court-appointed special advocate in the CASA program in California.
Aliza Karetnick is a nationally known litigation partner representing clients in high-stakes commercial matters and class actions. Her clients span multiple industries, including the manufacturing, personal care, food and beverage, and financial sectors. Well-versed in defending large commercial businesses in disputes involving allegations of fraud and deceptive trade practices, Aliza guides clients through complex cases and class action matters in state and federal courts across the United States. She is often asked to take the reins leading crisis and multi-disciplinary teams requiring careful risk management.
Aliza’s experience with complicated cases led to her appointment as a special master by the US District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. She is an active member of several industry associations and regularly writes and speaks about legal and business issues affecting the personal care and food industries.
Prior to joining Morgan Lewis, Aliza led the commercial litigation and dispute resolution practice in the Philadelphia office of a national law firm, where she also served as co-leader of its cross-practice manufacturing and consumer products team and class action litigation team.
Melissa C. Rodriguez advises clients on the full spectrum of labor and employment law matters. This includes single-plaintiff, class, and collective action litigation (both wage and hour and discrimination claims); wage and hour and other employment counseling; and internal workplace investigations. In her litigation practice, she represents employers in individual, class, and collective action litigation, and in administrative agency actions concerning federal and state labor and employment statutes. Her clients hail from sectors including the retail, insurance, transportation, food services, and financial services industries.
In her litigation practice, Melissa handles all aspects of a dispute. She presents oral arguments to US federal and state courts (including jury trials), and second-chaired a multiplaintiff litigation in federal court. She has defended employers as first- and second-chair in forums such as the American Arbitration Association, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), and JAMS. She also represents employers under investigation by administrative agencies, including the US Department of Labor, the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), and local and state agencies.
Melissa has experience with a host of federal and state labor and employment statutes. These include Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), the Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA), the Older Workers Benefit Protection Act, the Equal Pay Act, the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA), the Railway Labor Act, New York State and New York City Human Rights Laws, the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), and New York Labor Law..
In addition to her litigation background, Melissa has advised clients with respect to compliance with the requirements of the FLSA and state law wage and hour requirements. Melissa also has conducted a number of comprehensive internal wage and hour audits to assist clients in properly classifying workers as employees or independent contractors or exempt or nonexempt employees and to revise other wage and hour practices as necessary. She has also represented clients in federal and state Department of Labor audits and negotiated favorable settlements of violations.
Clients also turn to Melissa for counseling on harassment claims, the accommodation of employee disabilities, employee disciplinary issues, and termination decisions. She leads internal investigations into harassment and discrimination claims, and provides harassment and diversity training.
Melissa also routinely counsels employers with operations in Puerto Rico and represents employers in federal litigation and administrative matters in Puerto Rico.
Melissa has served as a faculty member at the Fordham Law School Summer Institute teaching an Employment Law course. While in law school, Melissa externed with Judge Sonia Sotomayor at the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit.
Dan Salemi is the deputy practice group leader for the firm’s global employee benefits and executive compensation group. He counsels clients on the full range of issues related to retirement plans, health and welfare plans, multiemployer plans, fiduciary governance, benefit plan investments and deferred and equity-based compensation arrangements. Dan is known for helping clients navigate high-stakes, complex situations with clarity and confidence. He has been described in Chambers USA and other publications as “measured,” “very thorough,” “highly prepared,” and as having “a unique ability to make the most complex benefits and ERISA issues understandable.”
Dan works with clients to design and maintain state-of-the-art benefit plans and compensation arrangements to achieve each client’s unique operational goals. His broad background in the employee benefits area includes the representation of clients who are dealing with employee benefits and executive compensation issues in mergers, acquisitions, spinoffs, restructuring, collective bargaining, and litigation. Dan represents clients across the United States in various industries, including public, private, and nonprofit organizations.
Among other types of clients, Dan works extensively with clients in the multiemployer plans space and has substantial experience with the wide variety of benefits and labor law issues that these clients face. In addition to serving as counsel to several large multiemployer pension and health plans, Dan represents and counsels clients on pension withdrawal liability and other issues related to participation in multiemployer pension and health/welfare plans. He advises clients on pension withdrawal liability issues in a variety of contexts, including collective bargaining, workforce restructuring, subcontracting, corporate transactions, and plant relocations and closures, and represents clients in any resulting litigation. Dan also regularly represents employer trustees to multiemployer plans in deadlock arbitrations, covering a variety of issues.
Dan serves on Institutional Investor’s Defined Contribution Institute Advisory Board.
