The Retail Holiday Season is Getting Earlier, Smarter, and More Measurable

This holiday season won’t look like the last one or the one before it. Shoppers are moving earlier, campaigns are running longer, and the pressure to prove return on investment is higher than ever. For retailers, the challenge is twofold: keep up with shifting consumer behavior and prove that every ad dollar actually performs.

Campaigns Are Launching Earlier and Across More Channels

Holiday shopping has been creeping forward for years, but 2025 marks the tipping point. According to recent survey data, 40.9 percent of marketers plan to launch campaigns earlier this year, moving spend forward to meet demand sparked by events like Prime Day and the growing “Black November” phenomenon. At the same time, 39.1 percent are expanding into more channels to meet shoppers wherever they are.

The days of one big Cyber Week push are over. Smart retailers are spreading dollars across a longer season and experimenting with channel mix to capture attention and drive outcomes.

CTV is Moving to Center Stage, But Old Habits Die Hard

One of the biggest shifts is the role of connected TV (CTV). CTV is now in most U.S. households.  More than half of marketers (58.2 percent) say they're increasing CTV budgets this year, up from 40.8 percent in 2024. That makes CTV the second most-used holiday ad channel, behind only social media.

CTV offers retailers the storytelling power of television with digital-like precision. It’s premium inventory, outcome-based buying, and accountability baked in. However, let’s be clear: spending money on TV is easy.  Making it perform like search and social is hard, and it’s kind of the whole point. Without the right creative, timing, and correct attribution and measurement, money will be wasted fast.

The problem is that too many retailers still buy CTV like it’s linear TV. They obsess over reach and frequency, metrics that look neat on a chart but say nothing about business impact. Do we buy search and social on a reach and frequency basis? No, we do not.

The undervalued metrics are the ones that actually matter the most: return on ad spend (ROAS), pipeline, and revenue. If you’re not measuring those, you’re leaving the real opportunity on the table.

How to Win the Season

So what does it take to thrive in this new environment? Retailers should focus on three priorities: creative, timing, and measurement.

Tailor your holiday creative to be a performance engine. It should strike a balance between brand storytelling and measurable consumer actions. The goal of the creative is to drive traffic, sales, and loyalty.

As you plan the timing of your holiday campaigns, think beyond a single Cyber Week surge. Meet consumers earlier in their journey, adapt quickly as demand spikes, and keep testing throughout the season.

In measuring, move past proxies like impressions or gross rating points (GRPs). Tie campaigns directly to revenue, whether through ROAS, cost per acquisition, or other outcome-based KPIs. Always, always, always conduct incrementality tests to identify the incremental impact of any marketing channel, including CTV.

Marketers who align these three levers will be best positioned to capture holiday demand and prove the value of their spend.

From Impressions to Outcomes

The retail holiday season is no longer defined by blasting impressions and hoping they convert. It’s about measurable outcomes, agility, and accountability. The retailers that adapt, launching earlier, diversifying channels, and measuring what matters, will set themselves apart.

In a season where every dollar is scrutinized, the winners will be those that treat holiday advertising less like a gamble and more like a science.

Jason Fairchild is the founder and CEO of tvScientific, a performance advertising platform built for connected TV.