Preparing for the World Cup: Managing Inventory Risk in Event-Based Retail

From jerseys to hats to keychains, major sporting events like the World Cup create massive retail opportunities with the popularity of themed merchandise. They also create inventory challenges, especially for an event that takes place only once every four years and marks its first time in the U.S. since 1994.

Event-themed and seasonal inventory presents unique forecasting challenges. Purchasing behavior is influenced by team performance, geography, local community engagement, and shifting consumer sentiment. These factors are often unpredictable, increasing inventory risks. In such scenarios, agility becomes important.

The 2026 World Cup is expected to be one of the largest sporting events ever held in North America, creating demand patterns that many U.S. retailers have never experienced before. Estimates put the event’s economic output at over $30 billion in the U.S. alone. A convenience store may not regularly carry soccer-themed or limited-edition merchandise, yet an event of this scale can quickly create demand for products that otherwise have little year-round relevance.

The challenge is determining how much inventory to stock without overcommitting to products with short shelf lives. Like most major sporting events, demand for World Cup-related products is highly dependent on a number of market-specific factors, including location and demographics. Combined with fluctuating consumer interest, a short sales timeline, and the threat of obsolete inventory, inventory planning becomes particularly complex.

Under a traditional buy/sell model, retailers purchase inventory upfront and assume all the risk if products fail to sell. This often requires inventory commitments months before an event, making forecasting particularly difficult. Instead, retailers are increasingly turning to more flexible inventory models, stronger supplier collaboration, and real-time sales visibility to manage the uncertainty that accompanies event-driven demand.

One approach gaining traction is scan-based trading (SBT), which allows vendors to retain ownership of merchandise until items scan at checkout. This model significantly reduces retailers' inventory risk and fosters a collaborative relationship with suppliers to respond to real-time sales trends rather than relying solely on pre-event forecasts.

If a product or SKU is outperforming the rest, suppliers can proactively identify low inventory to keep product shelves stocked and avoid potential out-of-stocks for high-demand items. Products that move more slowly can also be shipped to stores with higher demand. This level of adaptability is particularly important during major events, where a team’s or an athlete’s performance affects purchasing behavior.

External data points also lend guidance to inventory planning in event-based scenarios. Local demographics of the areas surrounding individual store locations may reflect different demand patterns. Stores near transportation hubs, stadiums, or public watch parties may see significantly more demand than out-of-market locations.

Likewise, retailers in areas with large international communities may choose to emphasize merchandise tied to specific national teams. Public transportation forecasts, event attendance estimates, local watch party activity, and historical traffic patterns all provide signals that help better anticipate demand. The key is pairing those insights with operational flexibility.

The Olympics presents a similar, though more frequent, event merchandising scenario.

Even the most accurate demand forecast can fail if retailers cannot execute at the store level. Poor merchandising execution is one of the major retail failures during significant events such as the World Cup. Event-driven merchandise only generates revenue when it reaches the selling floor at the right time. Products sitting in back rooms during peak demand represent missed sales opportunities and diminished returns on inventory investments. Without a system in place to keep shelves stocked with timely inventory, even the best-laid inventory plans will fail.

Suppliers and retailers that work collaboratively through programs like SBT are often better positioned to avoid these issues because of shared visibility into inventory movement and replenishment needs.

Beyond sports, the same applies to entertainment and pop culture moments. Vendors have successfully leveraged SBT programs for movie-inspired baked goods, holiday products, and even novelty merchandise related to blockbuster films (think "Wicked"). Often, they analyze near real-time sales data to determine optimal distribution for each product.

As retailers continue to search for ways to remain competitive in an increasingly dynamic consumer environment, event-based merchandising presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Those that build a strategy around agility to forecast demand, maintain operational flexibility, and collaborate closely with suppliers will be better positioned to capitalize on major events while minimizing inventory risk.

Jacob Bell is director of customer support and success at Fintech, a leading provider of B2B automation technology.